Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals could find a path to an extension. Heres how.
In a season of Shohei Ohtani mania and Ronald Acuña Jr. magic, of Mookie and Freddie and Julio, it’s possible that the most incredible swing of the year came on a Friday night in Kansas City. You probably missed it. It was July 28. The Royals, then 46 games under .500, were hosting the Twins. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, Minnesota closer Jhoan Duran was facing Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
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In the five weeks since, Royals hitting coach Alec Zumwalt estimates that he and assistant hitting coach Keoni DeRenne have watched a clip of the swing at least “a thousand times.” It is the source of amusement and amazement, a feat of hand-eye coordination and bat speed that does not seem possible. But every time Zumwalt presses play, the same thing happens: Duran hurls a 102 mph fastball that tails an inch inside, just off the plate. Witt throws his hands forward, drops his barrel on the baseball and pulls it 414 feet to left field for a walk-off grand slam.
“When we look at it from the biomechanical piece of it, it’s not normal,” Zumwalt said. “It’s one of the most unbelievable swings — if not the most unbelievable swing — I’ve ever seen.”
Bobby ballgame!#HEYHEYHEYHEY // #WelcomeToTheCity pic.twitter.com/lknf3JV0Up
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 29, 2023
The moment was also emblematic of Witt’s breakout campaign, a summer in which he transformed from a mesmerizing physical talent capable of moments of brilliance to one of the best young players in baseball. From May 23 to the end of August — a stretch of 84 games — he slashed .308/.348/.559 with 20 homers, 17 doubles and 25 stolen bases. Since the beginning of August, he has been even hotter, posting a .982 OPS. In his second season, he is two homers away from being the first Royal to post a 30-30 season, and his blend of power and speed at such a precocious age has put him in rare company in baseball history.
Witt, 23, is the seventh player in MLB history to post a 25-homer, 35-stolen base season at age 23 or younger. The others are Bobby Bonds, Cesar Cedeño, Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout and Acuña Jr. And as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci recently noted, Witt has 48 homers and 69 stolen bases in his first 285 career games. The only other players to reach those numbers at the same point: Bobby and Barry Bonds, Eric Davis and Trout.
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Then there is his evolution at shortstop. As a rookie, Witt was one of the worst defenders at the position. One year later, he’s been one of the best, ranking in the top 10 among all players in outs above average.
Witt has been so good — one of the 10 best position players in baseball, according to FanGraphs’ WAR — that the next question is inevitable. Could the Royals do what so many other clubs around baseball have done and sign a homegrown superstar to a long-term extension?
Bobby Witt Jr. hits a walk-off grand slam against the Twins. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)The question comes at a pivotal moment for the franchise. In the coming weeks, the club appears likely to break its franchise record for losses. Owner John Sherman, who purchased the team in 2019, has spent the last year pushing for a new stadium project in (or near) downtown Kansas City. The project would require taxpayer dollars to fund a portion of the costs, and Sherman has indicated he is hopeful the project will be on the ballot in the spring.
“This is not a business where you distribute cash to the investors,” Sherman said in June, during a press conference in which he provided an update on the stadium project. “This is a business where you take your excess cash flow and you put it back on the field and you find ways to compete and do something special for the market here.”
MLB owners often cite billion-dollar stadium projects as necessary to produce higher revenue streams and larger payrolls. Skepticism is generally warranted. The Royals have fielded payrolls near or around $93 million for the last three seasons, according to numbers compiled by Spotrac. The spending ranks firmly in the sport’s bottom third.
By extending Witt before next season, however, the Royals could achieve two goals at the same time: They could lock up a franchise pillar as general manager J.J. Picollo attempts to turn a six-year rebuild into a contender. They could also reassure fans just before they head to the voting booth and decide on a new stadium.
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The question — as it always is — is whether the two sides can find a deal suitable for both.
Consider this the era of the extension. Young stars are dominating the sport like never before. Yet the salary structure — players must play at least two years on a rookie scale before reaching arbitration — remains the same. The industry answer has been a proliferation of nine-figure extensions that can stretch on for upwards of a decade.
When Julio Rodríguez broke out as a rookie last season, the Mariners signed him to a creative extension that began with a seven-year base worth $119.3 million (and guaranteed him at least $210 million). When Corbin Carroll was poised to be the next big thing this spring, the Diamondbacks locked him up with an eight-year, $111 million contract that featured a club option for a ninth year. Carroll’s deal set the record for most money for a player with fewer than 100 days of service time.
The Rodríguez contract is instructive and intriguing when it comes to Witt — though it is just one of many comps to consider. Witt is on pace to finish this season with 5.6 WAR, according to FanGraphs, which would give him 7.9 fWAR across two seasons, with four years of team control remaining. As such, there are two other recent extensions for infielders worth examining:
- The Guardians’ Andrés Giménez, who signed a seven-year, $106.5 million deal earlier this year.
- The Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a 14-year, $340 million deal before the 2021 season.
Andrés Giménez celebrates after a home run. (Ron Schwane / Associated Press)
Witt’s representatives could happily point to Tatis (who accrued 6.2 WAR when accounting for the shortened season before the extension and 9.3 WAR over the previous two-plus) as a reasonable comp and push for something close. Tatis’ injury and subsequent PED suspension aside, the Padres’ guarantee of $340 million is more than four times the largest contract in Royals history—an $82 million extension for catcher Salvador Perez signed in 2021.
Instead, it’s best to start with the Guardians’ recent extension with Giménez, which offers a floor for Witt’s value. Witt is enjoying the same kind of breakout season that Giménez had last year (Giménez was at 6.3 WAR for the season going into the extension and 10.5 for his career, again accounting for 2020’s abbreviated season), while Witt will be almost a year younger entering next season than Giménez was at the time of his extension.
Witt could argue for a larger deal, though, because he plays shortstop, is likely to earn more in arbitration than Giménez because of his traditional counting stats, and has more prospect pedigree.
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Giménez’s deal values his arbitration seasons at around $35 million and his three free-agent seasons at about $24 million apiece. If Witt asked for a combined $50 million to cover the four years ahead of free agency and $28 million per season after that, that would place the value of the extension at seven years and $134 million, allowing him to become a free agent again when he is 30. It’s possible both sides could opt for a longer deal that would push the value well above $200 million. But another option could be the seven-year deal with a club option for an additional eighth year worth around $32 million.
The Royals, however, may be forced to be more creative. At which point the Rodríguez deal could serve as a rough template. The contract, signed last year, breaks down into a few pieces:
- Rodríguez will earn a base of $119.3 million across seven seasons through the 2029 season.
- Seattle must decide on an option after the 2028 season. It could be for as little as eight years and $200 million or as much as 10 for $350 million, including several tiers between, based on Rodríguez’s MVP finishes.
- If the Mariners decline those options, there’s a mutual seven-year, $168 million option for both sides to decide on after the 2029 season.
- If the mutual option is declined, Rodríguez has a five-year, $90 million player option he could exercise following the 2029 season. Or he could return to free agency.
The numbers in a hypothetical Witt contract could differ, but the complicated structure would allow the club to maintain control of a star while giving the player the ability to make big money over the length of the contract. (Rodríguez and Witt are both represented by the Octagon agency.)
The devil is usually in the details, of course, and there is no sign from either side that the listening stage of talks has even begun. The Royals would surely want to ensure that any contract for Witt would not prevent them from putting a talented roster around him, and it remains possible that Witt will prefer to bet on himself and seek the mega-contract that would await him in free agency should he keep performing. Many stars do. Last winter, for instance, four shortstops—Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson—signed free-agent contracts worth a combined $957 million. Witt may soon find himself in the same class.
But there is a reason players keep signing extensions before reaching arbitration: The appeal of a guaranteed nine-figure contract cannot be discounted.
Julio Rodríguez at the All-Star Game. (Alika Jenner / Getty Images)Whether the Royals can sign Witt to an extension or not, his performance across 2023 will count as an organizational victory. Sherman has labeled this season as an “evaluation year,” a year for development and growth, and one of those evaluations started to come into focus in July and August: Witt appears to be the player the Royals envisioned when they drafted him No. 2 overall behind Adley Rutschman in 2019.
The transformation actually began to take root in late May. When the Royals arrived home from a road trip on May 21, Zumwalt, the club’s hitting coach, exchanged texts with Witt about their plan for early work the next day. Witt was hitting .226 with a .267 on-base percentage, a sluggish start that heightened concerns after he posted a .294 OBP as a rookie.
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Witt had showcased his power and elite speed, but opposing pitchers were peppering the top of the strike zone with high fastballs, and for more than a season, he wasn’t always covering the top of the zone. “There were definitely times where people were clearly attacking up there,” Zumwalt said.
Witt had started making the adjustment in the offseason, using a machine that fired foam balls at high speeds. But on May 22, Zumwalt headed out for early batting practice. He placed a pitching ramp on the grass in front of the mound, mimicked a real pitcher instead of a batting practice one and started throwing as hard as he could. “Letting it eat,” he said.
Zumwalt worked from the stretch. He worked from the windup. He showcased a slide-step. The goal was to allow Witt to regain his timing, and more than three months later it remains a turning point. Witt collected two hits on May 23. Two days later, he finished 4-for-5 against the Washington Nationals. Since that early BP with Zumwalt, Witt raised his on-base percentage nearly 50 points.
“Truthfully, this is the version of him that I thought we would all see when he was in the minor leagues,” Zumwalt said. “He makes things look easy.”
On the field, the Royals are closing in on 100 losses. But off of it, there’s hope that this season could be the start of something.
Witt has taken a step, proving himself to be an adaptable talent. A new stadium is coming (someday). There is much work to be done on the wrong, but one piece appears to be in place. The next question:
For how long?
(Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
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